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2007年是中国公司公开上市充满活力的一年。在前十一月里，有一百九十九家公司在国内外上市且已筹集到475亿美元。
香港股市一路领先,，为中国公司筹集240亿美元。 上海筹集了超过一百亿美元，其中四项交易突破了十亿美元。深圳为八十六家公司筹集了总共43亿美元，绝大部分是为中国的小型公司。在海外，纽约证券交易所明显地领先其他主要证券市场，
筹集46亿美元，相比之下，那斯达克有20亿美元和新加坡的十六亿美元。
2006年和2007年中国股市的高涨鼓励了许多公司在价格高且市场还开放时卖掉股份。套一句银行业里的行话：随时地筹集资本，而不是等到需要的时候才做。
很多人担心过去两年中国股市的回报已经造成了典型泡沫特征。2007年市场平均市盈率是44左右，相比之下，标准谱尔(S&P)500
指数只有18.2。即使与快速成长国家如印度的平均26市盈率相比，也是很高的。
中国初始股公开发行环境的一个重要特征就是多种渠道。
图表2显示， 中国公司有建立良好能向全球投资市场的不同集团筹资渠道，这在过去是优势，将来也会是这样。
初始发行会越发不易，发行的绝对数和筹集资金的数量将会下降。但不会在短期内骤然停滞，至少不会是在中国经济以10%持续增长的时候。
因为公司需要资本，而银行体系却不能提供足够的资金。
The Market
for Chinese IPOs in 2007:? Striking While the Market
is Hot
James E. Shapiro
Senior Managing Director
Galileo Global Advisors, LLC
December 5, 2007
2007 has been
a robust year for IPOs of Chinese companies.? For the
first 11 months of the year (all data as of November
30), 199 companies launched IPOs on domestic and overseas
markets.? In terms of capital raised, 2007 has not been
a record year, at least not yet.? The YTD number is
US$47.5 Billion, compared to US$51.1 Billion in 2006.?
But it is important to keep in mind? that? capital raising
in 2005 and 2006 was heavily dominated by a handful
of large IPOs by major State-owned banks – CCB in 2005
and ICBC and Bank of China in 2006.
I would argue
that 2007 represents the return of a robust, diverse
and healthy IPO environment, particularly for younger,
dynamic companies – and this is an essential element
of a well-functioning financial system.? TABLE 1 provides
an overview of 2007.? In terms of capital raised, Hong
Kong led the way, raising US$24 Billion for Chinese
companies.? Eight large deals accounted for a substantial
portion of this total (US$16.1 Billion).?
Shanghai, as
you can see from TABLE 2, established itself firmly
in 2007 as a credible IPO market for larger deals.?
More than US$10 Billion was raised in 2007 (as of November
30), with four deals breaking through the US$1 billion
ceiling.
While Shanghai
is challenging major international exchanges as a viable
platform for larger IPOs, Shenzhen is quietly and surely
building a marketplace to provide growth capital for
entrepreneurial and typically younger companies.? 86
companies went IPO on Shenzhen so far this year, raising
a total of US$ 4.3 Billion (see TABLE 1).? The vast
majority of these IPOs raised between US$10 and US$100.?
Given the continued difficulties of many smaller Chinese
companies to borrow from banks, the vibrancy of the
Shenzhen Exchange in recent years has become vitally
important to many of these companies.
Outside of Hong
Kong and the domestic exchanges, NYSE was the clear
leader among the other major markets, raising US$4.6
billion, compared to US$2 billion on NASDAQ and US$1.6
billion in Singapore. Notably, London (including the
AIM market) was not a significant destination for Chinese
IPOs in 2007, unlike some earlier years.
What are we to
make of this recent surge of IPOs?? Is it just the normal
cyclical pattern of IPO activity that we see in all
markets?? Certainly, in part, the extraordinary rise
of the Chinese market in 2006 and 2007 has encouraged
companies to sell shares while prices are high and while
the market is “open.”? As the old banking truism holds:?
Raise capital when you can, not when you need to.
Yet there are
several other very important factors driving the 2007
IPO results.? First, there was large pent-up demand
to list and raise capital among Chinese firms – particularly
in the domestic market among smaller firms.? This pent-up
demand was caused by the ban on domestic IPOs from mid-2006
until mid-2007.? The ban on listings was at least in
part intended to help the process of restructuring State-owned
shares during “gu gai”, or Share Reform (from Q3 2005
to Q4 2006). By the summer of 2006 this process was
80% complete and the authorities began to loosen up
the listing approval process again.? Pent-up demand
among domestic companies immediately responded with
a surge of 58 IPOs on the Shenzhen Exchange in the second
half of 2006.? CHART 1, which tracks the number of IPOs
in the last three years, gives a sense of this dramatic
resurgence of Shenzhen.
Second, while
Hong Kong completely dominated IPO activity in 2005,
things began to change in 2006 and 2007.? There is much
more balance, both in terms of numbers of IPOs and in
terms of capital raised, among the major exchanges.
Third, in all
markets accessed by Chinese companies – domestic and
foreign – there has been a trend toward larger IPOs,
on average.? This may be in part the market learning
that larger IPOs, other things equal, are generally
more warmly received by investors.
Foreign IPOs
were never restricted in the same way that domestic
ones were.? Even during the years when the domestic
market was lackluster there were always some exceptional
companies – like Focus Media, Baidu and Suntech – which
successfully listed overseas and performed well.? But
only when some high performers emerged in 2006 that
were recognized and accessible to domestic investors,
did foreign interest in the domestic market pick up
substantially.
An important
factor helping the resurgence of the domestic market
happened, in my view, not with the end of the State
Share Sales, but rather with the relaxation of the domestic
listing moratorium (which occurred at around the same
time).? Once new Chinese IPOs were finally allowed to
list, you saw some widely-publicized success stories
that captured the attention of domestic investors and
pulled them into the market. Among them, the high-profile
dual-listing of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
(SH: 601398) in October 2006 brought domestic IPO investors
a return of 98% in the end of 2006. Daqin Railroad (SH:
601006), another notable billion-dollar IPO in July
and the first ever listing of a railroad company in
China, returned a solid 27% by year-end. Many of these
companies were of higher quality and better growth prospects
than the average listed company.? When some of them
performed well after their IPOs, it helped to shift
market psychology and drew more interest back into the
overall market – from both domestic and international
investors.? The market began to rise sharply in late
2006 (up 127 percent for the year) and is now up another
82 percent as of November 30 in 2007.
Where will the
current surge of IPOs end?? Certainly, many are concerned
that the Chinese market returns of the last two years
have generated some classic bubble characteristics.?
The average Price-Earnings ratio based on 2007E earnings
for the market is now around 44, compared to 18.2 for
the S&P 500.? Even if you compare it to other rapidly
growing countries like India, with an average PE of
about 26, it still appears high.
But one of the
remarkable features of the Chinese IPO environment is
the diversity of venues.? As CHART 2 demonstrates, Chinese
companies have well-established access to capital raising
on a diverse group of global equity markets.? This has
been a strength in the past and will continue to be
so in the future.? When investor interest is tepid in
London, it may continue to be strong in Singapore or
Tokyo.? When it is weaker domestically, NYSE or NASDAQ
are often capable of delivering substantial investor
interest – at least for certain companies at certain
times.
Inevitably, some
IPOs in the future will disappoint.? Some investors
will sell, thinking the market has peaked.? IPOs will
become harder to get done.? The absolute number, and
possibly the amount of capital raised, will decline.?
But it is unlikely to come to a sharp halt any time
soon – at least not while the Chinese economy continues
to grow at 10 percent a year, companies need capital
and the banking system cannot adequately provide that
capital.
TABLE 1 _Chinese
IPO Capital Raised by Exchange__________________________
Source: Thomson Financial, as of November 30, 2007.?
Others include American, Tokyo, Australian, Frankfurt, Korean, London, and OTC exchanges__________
TABLE 2 _Chinese IPO Capital Raised by Exchange__________________________
Source: Thomson ONE Banker, as of November 30, 2007________________________________________
CHART 1 _Number of Chinese IPOs by Exchange 2005, 2006 and 2007 YTD______
 ?
CHART 2 _Capital Raised in Chinese IPOs by Exchange 2005, 2006 and 2007 YTD
Source: Thomson ONE Banker, as of November 30, 2007------------------________________________________________ |
